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W7EES > SWPC 01.06.18 17:14l 54 Lines 1771 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3777_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<GB7YEW<AB0AF<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180529/0157Z 3777@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
28/1710Z from Region 2712 (N15E18). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 May,
30 May, 31 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 421 km/s at 28/0745Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
28/1852Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 301 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 May, 30 May, 31
May).
III. Event probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 077
Predicted 29 May-31 May 076/076/076
90 Day Mean 28 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 006/006-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/10
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