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W7EES > SWPC 03.06.18 00:48l 53 Lines 1740 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3797_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<OK0NBR<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<LU3DVN<LU1HVK<LU4ECL<JE7YGF<
N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180602/2320Z 3797@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 804 km/s at 01/2149Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 02/2037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/1735Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 28659 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 074
Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 074/073/072
90 Day Mean 02 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 019/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 011/012-009/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/25/25
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