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CX2SA > SWPC 11.04.15 23:23l 62 Lines 2285 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18702_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150411/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18702 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18702_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Apr 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
11/0241Z from Region 2321 (N12E68). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
408 km/s at 11/1450Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 10/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 10/2332Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 123
Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 11 Apr 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 021/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 017/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 006/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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