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CX2SA > SWPC 18.06.18 23:34l 61 Lines 2237 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 46239_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180618/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:46239 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:46239_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Jun 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 597 km/s at 18/1425Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 18/0240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 17/2353Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 564 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (20 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (21 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 074
Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 18 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 009/010-006/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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