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CX2SA > SWPC 21.06.18 23:34l 61 Lines 2179 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 46406_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180621/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:46406 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:46406_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Jun 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/0115Z from Region 2715 (N08E06). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jun,
23 Jun, 24 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 441 km/s at 21/1554Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 206 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (22 Jun, 23 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on day three (24 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 082
Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 082/080/080
90 Day Mean 21 Jun 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 006/005-006/005-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/10/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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