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CX2SA > SWPC 12.04.15 23:22l 62 Lines 2213 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18747_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150412/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18747 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18747_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Apr 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/0950Z from Region 2321 (N13E54). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at
11/2252Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/1339Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 11/2116Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15
Apr).
III. Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Apr 134
Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 12 Apr 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 014/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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