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CX2SA > SWPC 25.06.18 22:35l 61 Lines 2226 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 46593_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180623/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:46593 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:46593_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Jun 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Jun,
25 Jun, 26 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 23/2039Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 23/1147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at
23/1146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 277 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (25 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (26 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 077
Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 078/075/072
90 Day Mean 23 Jun 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 010/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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