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W7EES > SWPC 25.06.18 22:35l 48 Lines 1675 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3809_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<OK0NBR<F3KT<VE2PKT<VK4TUB<ZL2BAU<GB7YEW<AB0AF<
KF5JRV<N9LCF<KC8KPM<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180612/2310Z 3809@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 413 km/s at 11/2229Z. Total IMF reached 43 nT at
11/2331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
12/0327Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1815 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 070
Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 12 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 007/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10
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