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CX2SA > SWPC 26.06.18 23:23l 62 Lines 2297 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 46812_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180626/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:46812 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:46812_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Jun 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (27 Jun) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 26/2047Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 26/0950Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 26/0940Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2438 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (27 Jun), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (28 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day
three (29 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 071
Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 070/070/068
90 Day Mean 26 Jun 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 017/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 014/020-012/015-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/40/35
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 60/60/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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