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CX2SA > SWPC 14.04.15 23:22l 63 Lines 2294 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18832_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150414/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18832 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18832_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
13/2323Z from Region 2320 (S14W78). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
358 km/s at 14/1432Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 14/1523Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 14/1523Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 Apr), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (16 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (17
Apr).
III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 147
Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 150/155/155
90 Day Mean 14 Apr 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 012/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 015/020-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor Storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/45/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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