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W7EES > SWPC 10.07.18 01:06l 46 Lines 1639 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4066_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<N0KFQ<KF5JRV<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180709/2344Z 4066@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 452 km/s at 09/0737Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 370 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (11 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (12 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 073
Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 073/075/076
90 Day Mean 09 Jul 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 010/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 35/25/15
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