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CX2SA > SWPC 19.07.18 23:23l 59 Lines 2076 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 48499_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180719/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:48499 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:48499_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 413 km/s at 19/1950Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
19/1538Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
19/1610Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 071
Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 19 Jul 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 012/015-007/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/30
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/25/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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