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CX2SA > SWPC 16.04.15 23:22l 64 Lines 2400 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18930_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150416/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18930 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18930_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Apr 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
16/0907Z from Region 2324 (N18E34). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 720 km/s at 16/2049Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 16/0503Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/0524Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2108
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Apr) and quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 150
Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 150/155/155
90 Day Mean 16 Apr 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 020/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 025/036
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 016/020-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/20
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/30/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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