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W7EES > SWPC 02.08.18 23:12l 52 Lines 1847 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4111_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 180718/2335Z 4111@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast:
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 456 km/s at 18/0234Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/0214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/2158Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Jul), quiet to active levels on day
two (20 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 071
Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 18 Jul 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 006/005-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/15
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 15/40/25
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