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W7EES > SWPC 02.08.18 23:17l 56 Lines 1966 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4114_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 332 km/s at 30/1941Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
30/1945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
30/1941Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2927 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02
Aug).
III. Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 068
Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 30 Jul 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15
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