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W7EES > SWPC 03.08.18 02:04l 47 Lines 1637 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4115_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE<N3HYM<N9PMO<N9LCF<KC8KPM<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 180731/2302Z 4115@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 345 km/s at 31/1537Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
31/1346Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
31/1734Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1884 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03
Aug).
III. Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 069
Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 069/068/068
90 Day Mean 31 Jul 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/20
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