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W7EES > SWPC 03.08.18 02:04l 47 Lines 1685 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4116_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE<N3HYM<N9PMO<N9LCF<KC8KPM<
N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180802/0326Z 4116@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug, 04 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 01/1342Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 01/1249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
01/1841Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 597 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 Aug, 03 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (04 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 070
Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 01 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 006/006-006/006-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/30
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