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CX2SA > SWPC 17.04.15 23:23l 64 Lines 2385 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18987_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150417/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18987 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18987_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Apr 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
17/0137Z from Region 2325 (N04E32). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 784 km/s at 17/0408Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 16/2105Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 16/2105Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2087
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (18 Apr, 20 Apr)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Apr 150
Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 155/155/155
90 Day Mean 17 Apr 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 028/038
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 025/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 012/015-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/30
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/25/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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