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W7EES > SWPC 09.08.18 00:38l 54 Lines 1988 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4128_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 180803/2217Z 4128@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 03/1954Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 02/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/0858Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 103 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 Aug,
05 Aug, 06 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 070
Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 070/072/072
90 Day Mean 03 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 007/008-009/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/30/30
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