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W7EES > SWPC 15.08.18 17:49l 53 Lines 1824 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4228_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 180815/0324Z 4228@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
>From w7ees%w7ees.or.usa.noam@i0ojj.ampr.org Wed Aug 15 18:42:14 2018
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 367 km/s at 13/2102Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (15 Aug, 16 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 069
Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 14 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 009/012-013/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/50/25
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