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CX2SA > SWPC 18.04.15 23:23l 63 Lines 2351 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19035_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150418/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:19035 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:19035_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Apr 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/1419Z from Region 2321 (N11W22). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
635 km/s at 17/2305Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/1255Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/1349Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3744 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Apr 148
Predicted 19 Apr-21 Apr 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 18 Apr 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr 020/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 007/008-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/35/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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