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W7EES > SWPC 22.08.18 00:21l 47 Lines 1663 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4337_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<ZL2BAU<N1URO<VE2PKT<VE2JOS<N9LCF<KC8KPM<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 180821/2254Z 4337@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 710 km/s at 20/2106Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 21/1904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
20/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 9296 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Aug,
23 Aug, 24 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 068
Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 070/070/068
90 Day Mean 21 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 015/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 009/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/20
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