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W7EES > SWPC 23.08.18 00:08l 56 Lines 2012 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4353_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 569 km/s at 21/2144Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 22/0605Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
22/0117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10332 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Aug) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 067
Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 22 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 005/005-008/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor Storm 01/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/45/45
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