| |
CX2SA > SWPC 19.04.15 23:23l 61 Lines 2254 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19082_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150419/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:19082 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:19082_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Apr 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Apr,
21 Apr, 22 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
507 km/s at 18/2131Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/2025Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/2028Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6550 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Apr, 21 Apr) and
unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (22 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 152
Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 150/150/145
90 Day Mean 19 Apr 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 010/012-012/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/45
Minor Storm 05/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 35/45/65
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
