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W7EES > SWPC 24.08.18 03:18l 55 Lines 1952 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4376_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 180823/2348Z 4376@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 484 km/s at 22/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4038 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Aug, 25 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 070
Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 23 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 007/008-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/25
Minor Storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/50/35
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