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W7EES > SWPC 25.08.18 00:36l 58 Lines 2084 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4396_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Aug, 26 Aug, 27 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 23/2106Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 24/1252Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/1116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3701 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (26 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (27 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 072
Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 24 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 010/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/15
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/35/20
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