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W7EES > SWPC 28.08.18 15:31l 47 Lines 1699 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4443_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<LU4ECL<N0KFQ<KF5JRV<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180827/2353Z 4443@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 27/1730Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 27/1607Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 27/1627Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 39767 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 070
Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 27 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 034/070
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 019/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 008/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/25
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