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W7EES > SWPC 29.08.18 03:58l 47 Lines 1684 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4457_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<LU4ECL<N0KFQ<KF5JRV<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180829/0040Z 4457@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 626 km/s at 27/2114Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 28/0052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
28/1025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 97630 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Aug, 30 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (31 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 070
Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 070/070/068
90 Day Mean 28 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 020/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 008/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/25/15
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