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W7EES > SWPC 31.08.18 15:52l 48 Lines 1639 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4495_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<LU4ECL<N0KFQ<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 180831/0343Z 4495@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 517 km/s at 29/2128Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
30/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
30/1834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 56173 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02
Sep).
III. Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 068
Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 30 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/10
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