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CX2SA > SWPC 04.09.18 23:25l 60 Lines 2194 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 52616_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180904/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:52616 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:52616_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 04/1825Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 04/0417Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/0354Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 12215 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (06 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 068
Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 04 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 006/005-007/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 15/20/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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