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W7EES > SWPC 06.09.18 19:15l 50 Lines 1696 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4798_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<N9PMO<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180905/2252Z 4798@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 513 km/s at 05/1304Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 05/0108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
05/0108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2506 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Sep, 08
Sep) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 068
Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 05 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 007/008-009/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/25
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 20/40/30
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