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W7EES > SWPC 08.09.18 00:02l 55 Lines 2001 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4824_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 521 km/s at 07/1230Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
07/0601Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
07/0559Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1884 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 068
Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 07 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 009/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/20
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