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W7EES > SWPC 14.09.18 16:00l 47 Lines 1660 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4939_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<N0KFQ<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180914/0317Z 4939@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 584 km/s at 13/1903Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 13/1012Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
13/1349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4910 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (14 Sep,
15 Sep, 16 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 070
Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 070/068/068
90 Day Mean 13 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 009/008-008/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/35
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