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W7EES > SWPC 15.09.18 16:23l 48 Lines 1700 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4954_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180914/2246Z 4954@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 655 km/s at 14/2050Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 13/2337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 14/0139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 42518 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 069
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 007/010-013/016-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/40/35
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