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W7EES > SWPC 16.09.18 15:27l 49 Lines 1699 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4965_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE<GB7YEW<AB0AF<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180915/2356Z 4965@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 659 km/s at 14/2213Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 14/2205Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
15/1516Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 39830 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (16 Sep, 17 Sep) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 069
Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 15 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 013/016-012/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/30
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