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W7EES > SWPC 22.09.18 00:37l 49 Lines 1721 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5053_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180921/2305Z 5053@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep, 24 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 21/1651Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
21/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/2057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10457 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (23 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (24 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 067
Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 21 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 002/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 008/010-017/022-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/30
Minor Storm 10/25/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/55/40
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