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W7EES > SWPC 24.09.18 16:26l 50 Lines 1697 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5086_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VE3CGR<VA3HRA<KE0GB<KF5JRV<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 180923/2336Z 5086@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep, 26 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 22/2146Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 23/1312Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/1442Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 8045 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 068
Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 23 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 020/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 012/015-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/25
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