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W7EES > SWPC 01.10.18 16:30l 49 Lines 1788 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5187_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<VE2PKT<N9PMO<KC8KPM<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 181001/1240Z 5187@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (01 Oct) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 30/0158Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 29/2249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/1727Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 893 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (03 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 068
Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 30 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 009/012-009/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/15
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