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W7EES > SWPC 08.10.18 18:31l 49 Lines 1707 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5322_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0PBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<NS2B<KF5JRV<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 181007/2242Z 5322@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 07/1756Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 07/1226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 07/1418Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 343 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (08 Oct) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 068
Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 07 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 018/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 023/035-014/015-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 35/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 75/50/50
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