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W7EES > SWPC 10.10.18 18:37l 48 Lines 1695 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5335_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<HP2BWJ<N3HYM<NS2B<KE0GB<KF5JRV<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 181009/2217Z 5335@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 632 km/s at 09/0943Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 09/0040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/0541Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 39176 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 070
Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 070/070/072
90 Day Mean 09 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 016/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 011/012-009/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/35/25
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