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W7EES > SWPC 11.10.18 00:46l 48 Lines 1717 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5342_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VE2PKT<N9PMO<KC8KPM<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 181010/2239Z 5342@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 583 km/s at 09/2240Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 10/1108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 10/1335Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 31197 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (12 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (13 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 070
Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 10 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 010/012-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/20
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