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W7EES > SWPC 21.10.18 12:39l 58 Lines 1971 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5516_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 314 km/s at 20/0659Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
20/2033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
20/2021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23
Oct).
III. Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 070
Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 070/070/068
90 Day Mean 20 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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