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W7EES > SWPC 23.10.18 01:04l 47 Lines 1600 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5568_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<XE1FH<VE2PKT<N9PMO<N9LCF<
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Sent: 181022/2349Z 5568@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 402 km/s at 22/0543Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 22/0408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/2245Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 071
Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 071/071/070
90 Day Mean 22 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 005/005-010/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/15
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/30/20
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