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W7EES > SWPC 06.11.18 00:02l 47 Lines 1721 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5782_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<LU4ECL<PI8LAP<GB7YEW<AB0AF<KF5JRV<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 181105/2231Z 5782@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 05/0508Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 04/2229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 04/2219Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3131 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (07 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 068
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 023/038
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 011/015-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/40/20
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