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W7EES > SWPC 12.11.18 23:59l 49 Lines 1688 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5928_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<ZL2BAU<W9ABA<KE0GB<KF5JRV<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 181112/2241Z 5928@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 12/1929Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 12/1408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/0530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1208 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 068
Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 12 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 007/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/15
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