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W7EES > SWPC 14.11.18 00:44l 48 Lines 1638 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5941_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 181113/2326Z 5941@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 636 km/s at 12/2129Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/2032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
13/0017Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1803 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16
Nov).
III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 067
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15
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