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W7EES > SWPC 15.11.18 01:29l 49 Lines 1639 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5954_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<ZL2BAU<W9ABA<KE0GB<KF5JRV<
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Sent: 181114/2356Z 5954@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 463 km/s at 14/0947Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
14/0756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1654Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1886 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17
Nov).
III. Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 068
Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 14 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
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