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W7EES > SWPC 18.11.18 01:58l 47 Lines 1614 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5960_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 181116/0115Z 5960@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 422 km/s at 14/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1448 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (16 Nov, 17 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (18 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 068
Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 15 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 006/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/20
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