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W7EES > SWPC 05.12.18 01:25l 47 Lines 1619 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6252_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 181204/2357Z 6252@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 04/1710Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 04/0522Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/0523Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Dec) and quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 069
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 015/020-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/25
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/25/25
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