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W7EES > SWPC 13.12.18 20:20l 52 Lines 1865 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6367_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 181213/0424Z 6367@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 517 km/s at 12/0626Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2655 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 071
Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 12 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/15/15
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